Donkeys, Houses and Horses

Yearlings 2022
Written By George Allen

Newsletter #60

George talks…

It’s crazy to think we are already into the first week of November.

The turf flat season is fading into the rear view mirror and the all weather is populating our screens through the winter evenings. Dundalk takes centre stage throughout the winter in Ireland, as the only all weather track in the country. In the UK, Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Newcastle are the primary all-weather venues. The addition of the all weather has been a game changer for the sport.

The AW gives trainers, jockeys, and owners like ourselves a chance to get winners on the board, racing good ground horses on a sound surface through the dark winter months. Horses can competitively battle it out for the winter and build momentum into the spring of the new year.

Both our 2 year olds will be headed down the route of a winter all weather campaign. Both have shaped well in their respective starts of late.

CANADIAN FIRE got butchered at the break for her first start in nursery company. She finished off the race best of the field making ground right to the line, finishing 3 lengths off the winner, who was up in the van. Getting caught off the pace at Chelmsford it’s notoriously difficult to claw back the front runners. We were very pleased with the filly’s attitude, she even put on a BLACKBEARD esque performance pre race. It will not be long before she is in the winners enclosure.

ATTRAZIONE has come out of her race at Newcastle in fine fettle, she got a 2lbs rise from Mr. Handicapper, which was in line with our expectations. She heads next week again to Newcastle, fingers crossed she can go two better.

Irish Housing & Breeding Racehorses, A Vague Comparison

This was a comparison that came to me when I saw a tweet from Katie Mowat during the week.

Ireland, like most of Europe and around the world are in a serious housing crisis. People cannot get rental accommodation anywhere. Houses are outrageously expensive to purchase, if you are lucky enough to buy one you aren’t getting much bang for your buck.

In Ireland, the average size of the family unit has been getting smaller and smaller, this would lead you to believe that we would build housing units that would reflect this trend.

Well no, we don’t.

The backbone of the Irish market is the three bed semi detached house, travelling up and down the UK for most of the year, it’s similar there but not as acute. We need 3 bed semi’s yes, we need 4 beds too, but we are in desperate need of apartments, especially outside the Greater Dublin Area.

The builders say that it’s too expensive to build apartments, too tricky to get planning and not as profitable as the semi detached 3 bed.

So, of the few developments getting built in Ireland, we are building more of the same, we are building 3 bed houses. That’s what the builders are supplying to the market.

With every cause you have a knock on effect.

I spent my years renting in college and as a professional. I had to share a 3 bed with a gang of others. We rented out a room and a shared a kitchen. Nothing wrong with it, I’m sure you probably had a similar experience.

But in Dublin, Cork and Galway there are cases where 3 families, sharing 3 rooms in the one house, because they can’t get anything else.

Why not build more apartments? The fact is the average Irish family unit doesn’t require a 3 bed to live in. It’s one and two bed apartments, that’s what we really need.

Within the market, the supply and what the market demands is distorted.

Builders are building fewer larger houses, while a plethora of families have nowhere to live.

What has this got to do with horses?

In thoroughbred breeding right now, we are breeding racehorses for the foal and yearling markets. Very few breeders are breeding to race, they breed for the pinhookers who are looking for speed. Yet after the horses 2 or 3 year old career the secondary market want stamina or stretched speed.

Breeding racehorses has always been dictated by fashion. What stallion is hot, what cross is producing results today. This has led to the production of racehorses for speed.

Early speed, specifically.

Breeders produce foals bred on early speed for the pinhookers, who sell to the breeze up men, who sell to the owners who want quick results. If they get the result, great, job done. This oxymoronic situation has me puzzled and was brought to my attention as I studied the results of both the yearling sales and the HIT sales this past week.

2 year olds with form that were early, could be picked up easily. Their marks looked exposed, you wouldn't be surprised if no more improvement was under the bonnet. While the few 2/3 year olds bred from stallions who have produced horses to run over a mile plus were in hot demand and made markedly more than expected.

As a breeder myself, who breeds for the commercial market, you must aim to produce what the market wants. Breeders sell into the foal and yearling markets not the HIT sales. I know from experience, if you haven’t got what the specific market you are selling into wants, it makes for a sombre experience.

The pinhookers want big arses, snappy walks and horses that will be early and fast. That’s what their market wants. Early results.

A lot of the time that’s what breeders can only afford too. The fashionable stamina laden sires are priced out of reach for commercial breeders and even if they do try, they can be left counting the cost of the ones that didn’t work out.

But the HIT market doesn't want early speed per se, they don’t want slow horses, but they want robust, durable stamina, or at least speed that can stretch.

Listen to one purchaser’s thoughts at Tattersalls a week ago.

Like the apartments that are needed around every county in Ireland, the burgeoning and rich racing markets around the world want the near exact opposite of what we are commonly producing. They don’t need the semi detached houses they need apartments.

If you take a quick look at the economic realities of commercially breeding flat racehorses, you can see vividly why, we are where we are.

If a breeder heads to the horse in training sales to buy a filly to breed from. The ones that will be sub £50,000 will be fillies that have ran over 5/6 furlongs maybe have won once or twice, generally by speed sires and are fillies that the HIT guys think have done all they can and won’t progress. They are likely exposed in their mark but have shown decent ability on the track.

The breeder invests, and now has to find a way to recoup his/her investment as quickly as possible. The breeder checks the stallion market, for something sub £15,ooo. The majority will be speed horses well marketed and mixed through are a few stallions that produce horses that can stay, but aren’t exactly knocking the lights out in the sales ring.

It’s not hard to understand which stallion the breeder chooses.

If you went for the stamina stallion you run the risk of not seeing the mare’s progeny until they are late in the 2 year old season or even maybe just the 3 year old year. No opportunity to increase the value of the next foal in line to sell.

If the stamina stallion goes off the boil completely you are left with a foal you can’t sell, you keep it until a yearling and you may have to virtually give it away. No dent into the 50k investment in the mare, a large stud fee to pay and the cost of the mare for the interval as a cherry on top. Nevermind the lack of an uplift in the mare’s progeny!

If you go down the sexy speed precocious stallion route, the likelyhood of getting paid at the foal sales increases, the horse may run earlier and win, increasing the value of your mare, giving you a better chance of recouping the investment of the mare.

Like the housing market, everything is dictated by incentives, this isn’t the breeders fault.

A proposed solution?

I will get to work and come up with some for next weeks newsletter, if you have any ideas please let me know, send me a reply.

Breeders Cup…House Party

It’s that time of year again. This year the BC22 heads to Keeneland. The last time the meeting was staged there, I had the privilege to attend. AMERICAN PHARAOH took the Classic, made Sport Illustrated and became a national icon, covering the front pages of the majority of newspapers stateside.

This year, the Pharaoh nor myself will be heading to the Blue Grass.

As I write this article on Friday evening, I’m perched at my desk with the iPad watching MEDITATE hose up for the “lads” and Ryan Moore. We had planned for our annual Breeders Cup Party in London, only for the strikes to count us out (they were called off, Thursday!). I then spent my bank holiday Monday trudging around Dublin trying to get a decent sports bar to host us, too late notice was the most common objection.

So I’m having a Breeders Cup house party this weekend, I’d have much preferred to be chatting to you in London, Saturday evening, but hey ho!

The Breeders Cup World Championships is one of my favourite meetings of the year. Both on turf and dirt the best or close to the best fight it out after a long arduous season.

FLIGHTLINE is on everybody’s lips and I think this horse could be the next equine superstar to adorn the front pages after the Classic on Sunday.

Enjoy the weekend action, ITV are doing a marathon Saturday taking in the UK action and BC22, so sit back and enjoy the show.

Tattersalls

Saturday the 26th of November we invite you to join us at the sales grounds at Tattersalls.

We will be at the sales for the week and we would like to invite you to join us on the Saturday. As a group we can look at what makes buying foals so intricate and what makes a successful pinhook. We will look at the foals on our shortlist, we will hopefully nab one or two, have some tea and food. Chat about the racehorses in the syndicate. Followed by a visit to the National Stud to see STRADIVARIUS up close and personal in his new environment.

As ever if you are interested in attending, shoot me back an email with numbers.

The Race That Stops a Nation

Case in point of markets wanting staying horses is the Melbourne Cup. David Eustace was co-trainer of this years winner alongside Ciaron Maher. Gold Trip took home the £2,500,000 winners prize, the horse was bred in France, broke his maiden over a mile 3 furlongs at 3. Then ran credibly in France before being sold to Australian Bloodstock et al with a view to running in the Melbourne Cup.

The horse is by OUTSTRIP a Breeders Cup winning sire and GOLD TRIP is out of a Dubai Destination mare, a clue here on next weeks newsletter. Maybe, breeders shouldn't be bemoaning the influence of the stallions they breed to and instead look at the other 50% of the equation when breeding commercially. GOLD TRIP’S dam SARVANA has a stoutly stamina laden pedigree which was “sped up” by OUTSTRIP.

Jockeys…

Colin Keane was crowned Irish champion jockey this week. The title tussle with Billy Lee didn’t materialise due to the fact Billy had to sit out the last few days because of a whip ban. A massive own goal by the Irish authorities and a complete lack of “sense” in my opinion. Why not make him serve the ban at the beginning of next season? While winning the jockeys championship would have made Billy Lee a more familiar face internationally, he can lay claim to being YouTube famous.

Check out this video of the Castletown Donkey Derby of 1994.

This week coming…  

  • Cheltenham November Meeting

  • Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale

All the Best,

George

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George Allen https://www.Brownsbarnthoroughbreds.com
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